Saturday, August 31, 2019

DORIAN UPDATE, AUG. 31ST, 11:00 AM: Dorian's Track Continues to Shift East Away From Florida

As of 11 a.m. Saturday, Dorian continues to strenghten but with the high in the Atlantic weakening and an expected trough in the Eastern US, the turn to the north is still expected. Dorian will slow down over the Bahamas which means the track trend continues to shift eastward. 

Dorian is located over a part of the Atlantic Ocean that has very warm water and the atmospheric conditions are favorable for it to maintain its intensity or even nudge up slightly.

It is moving WNW and will continue that motion for the next two days and eventually slow down significantly, perhaps dangerously close to the northern most islands of the Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas except for Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island.
After that, the ridge of high pressure that had been pushing it WNW will weaken some, opening the door for Dorian to make its turn to the north. Due to Dorian’s current WNW motion as opposed to west motion and it slowing down prior to reaching the East Coast of Florida, that turn north may very well occur before reaching the East Coast of Florida.
This may end up being similar to Matthew from a few years ago. It is still too early to say whether or not the center would cross the East Coast of Florida. Since Dorian will be a relatively small storm if it stays far enough off shore that would keep major hurricane winds in the Atlantic.
Any slight nudge westward would push the very dangerous winds onshore the east coast. Either way, hurricane winds, at least in gusts will be expected up the East Coast. North of the center, the onshore wind will lead to a storm surge concern on the East Coast.

No comments: